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We have also continued to work on breeding Entbrats from several breeding combinations.

With no Wishing Torches lit, we continued breeding until all of the absolute uncertainties were 1.0% or smaller.  Ultimately, we had:

Group 1

Potbelly: 1063
(40.9 ± 1.0)%

T-Rox: 725
(27.9 ± 0.9)%

Entbrat: 812
(31.2 ± 0.9)%

Total: 2600

Group 2

Fwog: 1779
(45.0 ± 0.9)%

Furcorn: 1900
(48.0 ± 0.8)%

Entbrat: 277
(7.0 ± 0.4)%

Total: 3956

Group 3

Noggin: 934
(41.2 ± 1.0)%

Bowgart: 605
(26.7 ± 0.9)%

Entbrat: 730
(32.2 ± 1.0)%

Total: 1501

Clearly, the breeding odds are a lot better using the combinations of 1-element and 3-element monsters.

Then we did them with 1 torch.  Results:

Group 1

Potbelly: 825
(42.2 ± 1.1)%

T-Rox: 493
(25.2 ± 1.0)%

Entbrat: 636
(32.5 ± 1.1)%

Total: 1954

Group 2

Fwog: 1297
(45.0 ± 0.9)%

Furcorn: 1367
(47.4 ± 0.9)%

Entbrat: 219
(7.6 ± 0.5)%

Total: 2883

Group 3

Noggin: 692
(40.1 ± 1.2)%

Bowgart: 479
(27.8 ± 1.1)%

Entbrat: 553
(32.1 ± 1.1)%

Total: 1724

The numbers aren't much different from what we got with no torches.  For Noggin + Bowgart, the chance of success actually looks worse.  But really, the numbers are so close together that there's no real difference; the uncertainty value is a lot larger than that difference.  Clearly, to get any meaningful results, we're going to have to do a lot more breeding tries, to get the uncertainties down, or make a bigger difference... by using more torches.

With 4 torches:

Group 1

Potbelly: 951
(35.6 ± 0.9)%

T-Rox: 642
(24.0 ± 0.8)%

Entbrat: 1078
(40.4 ± 0.9)%

Total: 2671

Group 2

Fwog: 1625
(43.2 ± 0.8)%

Furcorn: 1661
(44.2 ± 0.8)%

Entbrat: 474
(12.6 ± 0.5)%

Total: 3760

Group 3

Noggin: 876
(35.5 ± 1.0)%

Bowgart: 573
(23.2 ± 0.8)%

Entbrat: 1021
(41.3 ± 1.0)%

Total: 2470

Now we're getting somewhere.  The success rate for getting Entbrats is up significantly in all cases.  The outcomes for all of the "parents" are down.

And we have some interim results for breeding with 7 torches:

Group 1

Potbelly: 493
(37.7 ± 1.3)%

T-Rox: 256
(19.6 ± 1.1)%

Entbrat: 560
(42.8 ± 1.4)%

Total: 1309

Group 2

Fwog: 697
(40.0 ± 1.2)%

Furcorn: 760
(43.6 ± 1.2)%

Entbrat: 285
(16.4 ± 0.9)%

Total: 1743

Group 3

Noggin: 440
(35.9 ± 1.4)%

Bowgart: 237
(19.3 ± 1.1)%

Entbrat: 548
(44.7 ± 1.4)%

Total: 1225

Broadly speaking, the trends have continued -- the Entbrat chances are up in all cases.  But so, slightly, are the Potbelly and Noggin numbers, though these are well within the uncertainty ranges.  We need to get the uncertainty values down, so we are continuing the research in this series before we go on to using 10 torches.

As always, thanks to the "minions" for grinding away at this little problem!

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